Introduction — August 13, 2018
The following report isn’t “news”, it is quite literally history and bad history at that.
The plan for war with Iran, reported on below, was first drawn up 15-years-ago during the Bush administration and there have been huge changes in Iran’s defences since then. Indeed, those changes make the war plan seem not just outdated but dangerously out-of-touch.
If Pentagon planners are still using the Theatre Iran Near Term (TIRANNT), as the report is called, they could be in for a very rude awakening.
Among other things: Iran has fielded a variety of sophisticated locally developed anti-aircraft missile systems including the Mersad air defence system, the Raad, the Ya Zahra, the Herz-9, the Sayyad-2 and the Talash Air Defence system.
When the war plan was first conceived NONE of these weapons had even been developed, let alone tested and deployed. They are now all fully operational at strategic sites throughout Iran.
Nor does the following report take into account another critical area of air defence in which Iran has made huge advances: its radars. In the past 15-years Iran developed an array of indigenous radar systems. Including long-range radars, phased array radars and Passive radar systems.
Fifteen years ago Iran didn’t have any locally developed radar systems.
Since the war plan was first drawn up Iran has also taken delivery of a wide range of advanced Russian air defence systems. Including the Pantsir, the Tor missile system and the renowned S-300 air defence system.
Iran is thought to have up to eight regiments equipped with S-300 air defence systems; four equipped with the S-300PMU1 and four armed with an earlier version of the S-300. 15-years-ago it didn’t have any.
However, the following report makes an even bigger mistake in that it omits to take into account another weapon in Iran’s arsenal: its surface-to-surface missiles. This is a crucial omission as in recent years Iran has developed and deployed a wide range of surface-to-surface missiles.
If America was rash enough to launch a SHOCK and AWE offensive, Iran would respond by striking U.S. targets in the region. Literally dozens of U.S. military bases (see map) could be hit by Iranian missiles within minutes of a U.S. strike on Iran, leading to potentially thousands of U.S. casualties, maybe even tens of thousands.
The following doesn’t even take this into account. Nor does it consider the possibility that Russia might intervene alongside Iran. Instead it makes seriously outdated assumptions about Iran’s defence capabilities and, if the Pentagon is staffed by those who are genuinely concerned about U.S. security, they will dismiss it as dangerously deluded. Ed.
Iran faces devastating US secret ‘SHOCK and AWE’ war plan that can be deployed in HOURS
Harry Holloway — Daily Star August 13, 2018
Washington war hawks have already carried out analysis of what it would take for the US to defeat Iran.
The US army, navy, air force and marines would all be tasked with a “shock and awe” blitz in the Middle East.
Codenamed Theatre Iran Near Term (TIRANNT), simulations of attacks were carried out back in 2003 in the initial planning for the Iraq War.
And these initial plans could now be more relevant than ever as the US and Iran square up to each other.
Trump has already warned Iran it will “suffer consequences the likes of which few throughout history of suffered before” in furious rant on Twitter.
US forces already surround Iran with a ring of military bases across the Middle East and the Fifth Fleet in the Persian Gulf.
And a report published by scholars at SOAS University of London back in 2007 detailed how such an attack by the US could look.
Authored by two academics ‘Considering a war with Iran’ reveals the US had made “military preparations” to attack Iran.
And with renewed tensions and fiery threats being exchanged, the study seems chillingly relevant once again in looking at US capability to strike Iran.